On Aug. 26, I read a rather frightening op-ed in the Los Angeles Times coauthored by David Gompert — until recently the second-highest-ranking U.S. intelligence official in the Obama administration. What scared me was his sober assessment of the possibility that a conflict in the maritime arena could trigger a China-U.S. Armageddon — at least for Asia. This is not a new thought but heretofore had been the domain of fiction writers, wolf-criers and video-game makers.
There is now little doubt that China and the West are going to clash. They are already competing in both military and civilian ways and more fundamentally in values and the pursuit of political power. The as yet unanswered questions are will the conflicts become "physical," and if so how and why?
China — according to Gompert — is particularly worried about a long war in which the technically superior U.S. forces would prevail. So their military is developing plans and tactics for early and swift strikes to take out U.S. carriers, air bases, and command and control networks, including satellites. Meanwhile, the U.S. military has come up with its "air-sea battle" plan "designed to cripple such forces — missile launchers, air and submarine bases, and command and control centers before they can be unleashed."