Beijing and Manila continue their increasingly shrill propaganda war over the South China Sea with each accusing the other of violating prior agreements and provoking tensions. What is going on and what are the possible outcomes of this dispute — and their implications?

Over the past few years, the Philippines and China have engaged in a series of increasingly dangerous incidents stemming from their conflicting claims in the South China Sea. On Jan. 22, a potential watershed date in the politics of the South China Sea, the Philippines, with tacit U.S. support, filed a complaint against China with the Law of the Sea's dispute settlement mechanism — the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea based in Hamburg, Germany. Despite China's refusal to participate, the process is continuing and an arbitration panel has been appointed and convened.

However, the arbitration is likely to be a long drawn-out process that may take years — and settle little or nothing.