After a series of aggressive incidents involving Chinese patrol boats and subsequent soothing official statements, many analysts are trying to figure out what is really going on.

More specifically, why have different sections of China's government given mixed signals and chosen in nearly one fell swoop to embarrass their own leaders, undermine China's carefully nurtured and reasonably successful "charm offensive" toward the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and play right into the U.S. strategy of convincing ASEAN nations that they need its protection from a bullying China?

In China, has the political train left the station and are ASEAN nations thus just changing seats or cars on the train?