HONG KONG — It's official. Japan, which economists and other pundits predicted 20 years ago was heading to the very top of the global league by about now, has in terms of 2010 gross domestic product slumped to No. 3.

The U.S. is No. 1, but sickly, running the biggest budget deficit ever recorded, a huge $1.5 trillion. China is No. 2 and aggressively rising.

Japan is an also-ran headed to the second division any way you measure its prowess: by sheer economic numbers, by industrial might, political weight, diplomatic influence and military muscle.