MUNICH — The world's worst postwar financial crisis is over. It arrived suddenly in 2008 and, after roughly 18 months, vanished almost as quickly as it had come. Bank rescue programs on the order of 5 trillion euro and Keynesian stimulus programs on the order of a further 1 trillion euro staved off collapse.
After falling 0.6 percent in 2009, world GDP is expected to grow this year by 4.6 percent and by 4.3 percent in 2011, according to International Monetary Fund forecasts — faster than average growth over the last three decades.
The European debt crisis, however, remains, and markets do not fully trust the current calm. The risk premiums that financially distressed countries must pay remain high and signal continuing risk.