PARIS — Just before Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia in 2008, Vuk Jeremic, the Serbian foreign minister, warned that in Africa alone "there are about fifty Kosovos waiting to happen." The 50 African wannabes can take heart, as the International Court of Justice has just ruled that Kosovo's action was not illegal, as international law contains no "prohibition on declarations of independence."
The International Court of Justice is a conservative body whose judges are almost evenly split between those whose home countries have recognized Kosovo's independence and those that have not, but 10 of the 14 judges on the panel voted for the ruling. The ruling does not oblige other countries to recognize Kosovo's independence, but it definitely shifts the balance in favor of secession.
What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander: minorities seeking independence anywhere will be encouraged by the court's ruling. Five of the European Union's 27 members refuse to recognize Kosovo precisely because they fear that their own minorities might use its independence as a precedent: Cyprus (Turkish Cypriots), Greece (Macedonian Turks), Slovakia (Hungarians), Romania (also Hungarians), and Spain (Catalans and Basques).