WASHINGTON-- How are things going in Iraq? The short answer, unfortunately -- based on Brookings' Iraq Index and my own assessments -- is not very well. There is still considerable hope, and much that does go well in Iraq. But on balance, there is more reason for worry than optimism right now.

Any counterinsurgency and nation-building effort requires progress on three fronts -- security, economics, and politics. The first is going badly in Iraq. Few will be surprised to hear this, but it remains true even if one looks below the surface at more detailed indicators than the daily casualties. Economics shows some promise, and at least as much good news as bad overall, but progress is slow -- perhaps too slow to help defuse the insurgency very much. Finally, politics is of course in great flux right now. But public optimism, in terms of Iraqis' views about their own country's future and their government, is weakening. And the referendum process we are now witnessing seems more likely to estrange Sunni Arabs, who still form the core of the insurgency, than to bring them aboard. There is hope for progress here, but time is being lost.

Consider first security. While this fall has begun somewhat better than the summer trends, coalition troop fatalities have averaged about 65 to 70 a month since the spring -- roughly the average since Saddam Hussein fell. Other news is even worse. Iraqi security forces have lost far more personnel in the last five months than in any previous comparable period; their fatalities have been averaging about 60 a week. September saw more multiple-fatality bombings than any previous month. Iraqi civilian fatalities have, accordingly, been at historic highs for the last 30 months as well. The crime rate (independent of political violence) remains the Middle East's worst, with no sign of progress. Oil infrastructure is suffering about 10 attacks per month, slightly above the average since Hussein fell. And insurgents have been mounting an average of about 90 attacks a day in recent weeks, again the highest tally since Hussein was overthrown.