WASHINGTON -- So which U.S. President George W. Bush was right? The one who said Aug. 30, the day the Republican National Convention started, that the war on terror might not be winnable, or the Bush who showed up the rest of the week and asserted that victory would be ours?

The question has become a political one used by the Kerry campaign to question Bush's resolve and judgment. But the real issue is strategic: As we attempt to devise the right type of foreign policy to address the problem of violent Islamic extremism, we need to know which argument is correct.

In reality, in important ways Bush was right both times. We are indeed winning the current set of campaigns against the first generation of al-Qaeda -- Osama bin Laden and his close associates, most of whom are now dead or behind bars, and the rest of whom are on the run and less able to plot and plan than three years ago. But we are decidedly not winning, at least not yet, against the second generation of al-Qaeda.