An international tribunal will rule Tuesday on a Philippine challenge to China's assertion to more than 80 percent of the South China Sea, one of the world's busiest waterways.
The Philippines contests China's "historic rights" claim based on a 1940s map that shows a dashed line covering around 3.6 million sq. kilometers. China has said it does not recognize the jurisdiction of the tribunal in The Hague and will ignore its findings, which will binding on both countries as signatories to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea but lacks a mechanism for enforcement.
Whatever the outcome, China will probably respond to the ruling. And unless the report is 100 percent favorable for Beijing, its options could range from benign to aggressive: