OECD forecasts Japan’s share of global GDP will halve by 2060


Japan’s share of global economic output will halve to 3.2 percent in 2060 from 6.7 percent in 2011, according to projections by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The eurozone’s share of global gross domestic product is meanwhile projected to fall to 8.8 percent from 17.1 percent by 2060, leaving both the 17-nation currency bloc and Japan lagging behind Indonesia and Brazil, the Paris-based organization reported Friday.

By contrast, both China and India are forecast to surpass the United States and become the world’s leading economic powers by the target year, the OECD predicted.

China will likely overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy as early as 2016, the OECD said, estimating China’s share of global GDP will reach as high as 27.8 percent in 2060 compared with 17.0 percent last year. The share of the United States is expected to fall to 16.3 percent from 22.7 percent during the same period, while India’s will to rise to 18.2 percent from 7.0 percent.

By 2060, China and India will together account for almost half of global GDP, or 1.5 times the combined share of the Group of Seven advanced economies, according to the OECD’s calculations.

“The world our children and grandchildren inherit may be starkly different from ours,” OECD Secretary General Angel Gurria said in a statement, calling for the introduction of policies based on ongoing structural changes in the global economy.

The average growth rate from 2011 to 2060 is projected at 1.3 percent for Japan, 2.1 percent for the United States, 4.0 percent for China and 2.9 percent for the global economy. The OECD based its predictions on 2005 purchasing power parities.