I don't like to say I told you so, but I told you so. Back in July last year, I wrote in this column that the post-Lehman shock world was participating in a drama in five acts, in which the fourth was likely to be where currency turmoil hits the stage.

This is precisely what seems to be unfolding at this moment. And there are two reasons why.

Reason No. 1 is the one I referred to in the July column. This is the issue of protectionism. As I pointed out then, rising protectionism invariably leads to competitive devaluations.