NEW YORK -- Any analysis posing Iran as a potential threat to peace in the Middle East is generally based on the assumption that its aggressive pursuit of nuclear power can only have the most ominous consequences for the region.

After all, the argument goes, the country has substantial oil resources and is one of the most important petroleum exporters in the world. So nuclear power is unnecessary for its own energy needs.

That view, however convenient, is now being challenged by industry analysts who indicate that Iran may have significantly diminished oil-export capabilities in the relatively near future. If this assessment is correct, there is an urgent need for a re-evaluation of Iran as a "regional threat" to peace and for a closer look at its need to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes.