SINGAPORE — Could a radio operator, whose identity is unknown, cause a war between the United States, the world's most powerful nation, and energy-rich but radical Iran? Perhaps not. But it now appears that someone — maybe a prankster — almost triggered a shootout between the two sides earlier this month in the Hormuz Strait at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, the source of around one-fifth of the oil traded each day around the world.
It could have escalated into a wider conflict with serious global reverberations, particularly for Japan and other oil-importing countries in Asia. With crude oil currently costing around $90 per barrel, analysts say a blockage of the strait would cause panic oil buying and make prices shoot much higher until the normal flow could be reestablished and secured.
The latest incident involving Iranian challenges to U.S. warships as they pass into and out of the Persian Gulf also highlights how the relative risks to Asia's vital oil shipments have shifted west from Southeast Asia to the Hormuz Strait in the past few years, as tensions between Iran on the one hand and the U.S. and its allies on the other rise while perceived security threats diminish in the Malacca and Singapore straits.